Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research: Final Report

Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research: Final Report

Conducted risk analyses or accidents, natural disasters, biosecurity, and a benefit assessment. Focuses on influenza viruses and coronaviruses.

2015

Determined that 0.4% of laboratory acquired wild influenza infections could lead to a pandemic and thus would lead to one every 750-50,000 years. Avian influenza and coronaviruses were determined to be insufficiently transmissible to cause a pandemic in this context. The most likely malicious acts against laboratories are identified, and the most likely actor in this scenario would be a malicious insider. A successful event that covertly infects the public would have to occur every 80-5,500 years to have the same total risk as biosafety events.