A New Model of Bioterrorism Risk Assessment

A New Model of Bioterrorism Risk Assessment

Focuses on the feasibility and probability of attack from a variety of actors. Creates a ranking scheme that considers four main areas: Perpetrator, Agent, Means/Media of Delivery, and Target.

2009

Given the parameters presented, provides a gradual model for assessment of risk in a variety of intelligence scenarios. The easiest scenarios to project are those with known/suspected perpetrators. To use the model in this way, three types of perpetrators are assessed based on their likelihood of enacting the 2001 anthrax attacks. The model projected the probability of perpetrators in this order: Insider, Enemy State, Terrorist (and thus, did not accurately select the actual perpetrator as the most likely).