Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

Gives information on updates regarding the Division of Select Agents and Toxins' select agent scoring and ranking system. The review is contextualized by abundant criticism of the 2008 Bioterrorism Risk Assessment for overly complex modeling, lack of transparency, failure to use decision trees, parameterization issues, etc. In an effort to standardize the previous system, which relied on widely variable expert opinion, DSAT used a Risk-Based Agent Prioritization Tool (RAPT) using data from agent fact sheets and a Decision Support Framework (DSF).. explores the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process.

2022

This iteration of the SAR is based on a DSF, which was one of the key recommendations of the Committee for Methodological Improvements. DSFs can be run quickly, are more user-friendly and adaptable to new data, and clearly state objectives and key questions of the researchers. The RAPT uses "multi-criteria decision analysis techniques" which DSAT suggests will increase transparency and decrease variability. MCDA and DSF approaches both showed strong promise in determining agent risk. MCDA applied thresholds to subscores based on Production/Exposure and Consequence/Mitigation criteria. DSF, on the other hand, applied thresholds at the single criterion level (complementary precursor to MCDA). Tier 1 agents plus Nipah virus and minus C. botulinum consistently ranked above other agents. The quantitative approaches affirmed existing knowledge on select agents and demonstrated potential to reduce reliance on SMEs.