Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change

Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change

The National Research Council evaluated the utility and soundness of the risk assessment process of DHS. In doing so, the evaluation provided information on how the process works, and the factors considered.

2008

The DHS's evaluation tool (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is described and critiqued by the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the DHS's Biological Agent Risk Analysis of the National Research Council. This system assesses the relative risk of 28 pathogens and toxins. The committee suggests outside scientific review, points out a failure to accurately model terrorist intent, and notes that the model is unnecessarily complex. Alarmingly, there is not consideration for risk management as part of the risk assessment, meaning that it does not provide a road map for preparation or reaction to an actual event.