Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis: Synthetic Pandemics.

Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis: Synthetic Pandemics.

Assessed whether engineering pathogens capable of "sustained, human-to-human transmission and causing mortality and morbidity" is possible/probable. Also considers how such pathogens would compare to naturally emergent pathogens in these regards, the threat of accidental or intentional release of synthetic pathogens in causing pandemics. Focused on non-state actors.

2024

Concludes that biotechnology advancements have lowered and will continue to lower barriers to synthetic pandemic pathogen construction. Evaluates that the risks of these types of events will increase in the coming decade. Presented the most likely scenario as one where a lone actor or non-state group develops a modified natural ssRNA virus to be dispersed by aerosol.